University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (U Lab), 2025
LiveTradeBench
Live portfolio allocation by LLMs on streamed prices and news, run in two different markets: US stocks and Polymarket prediction markets. Each step the model outputs percentage weights.
About this benchmark
- Size
- 21 LLMs; 50 trading days (2025-08-18 to 2025-10-24); 15 US equities/ETFs + cash, 10 Polymarket markets
- Public split
- Code and PyPI package; live site
- Grading
- Cumulative return and Sharpe ratio (plus drawdown/volatility) per market
- Licence
- PolyForm Noncommercial 1.0.0 (code); separate commercial licence
- Submission
- maker-only
- Products allowed
- Not stated
- Latest version
- arXiv v1 (2025-11-05)
- What it does not cover
- Order execution and trading costs at realistic size; markets other than US stocks and Polymarket
Results
10 modelsEach score shows who reported it: the benchmark's authors (quoted from their paper), the benchmark's official board, or Moneda (run with the benchmark's own grader and rules). We do not copy other aggregators.
LiveTradeBench arXiv v1 (2025-11-05)
cumulative return %, higher is better. 10 models.
Updated 5 Nov 2025
- GPT-4.16.3
- GPT-o36.0
- gpt-55.3
- Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct5.2
- Llama4-Scout4.7
- Llama4-Maverick4.5
- grok-44.3
- Claude Opus 43.9
- Claude Opus 4.13.7
- Claude-Sonnet-3.73.6
LiveTradeBench arXiv v1 (2025-11-05)
cumulative return %, higher is better. 10 models.
Updated 5 Nov 2025
- 1GPT-4.16.3
- 2GPT-o36.0
- 3gpt-55.3
- 4Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct5.2
- 5Llama4-Scout4.7
- 6Llama4-Maverick4.5
- 7grok-44.3
- 8Claude Opus 43.9
- 9Claude Opus 4.13.7
- 10Claude-Sonnet-3.73.6
| 1 | GPT-4.1 | OpenAI | 6.3 | US stock market, live 2025-08-18 to 2025-10-24 (50 trading days) | Paper Table 2 Reported by the authors, 5 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | GPT-o3 | OpenAI | 6.0 | US stock market, live | Paper Table 2 Reported by the authors, 5 Nov 2025 |
| 3 | gpt-5 | OpenAI | 5.3 | US stock market, live | Paper Table 2 Reported by the authors, 5 Nov 2025 |
| 4 | Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct | Qwen | 5.2 | US stock market, live | Paper Table 2 Reported by the authors, 5 Nov 2025 |
| 5 | Llama4-Scout | Meta | 4.7 | US stock market, live | Paper Table 2 Reported by the authors, 5 Nov 2025 |
| 6 | Llama4-Maverick | Meta | 4.5 | US stock market, live | Paper Table 2 Reported by the authors, 5 Nov 2025 |
| 7 | grok-4 | xAI | 4.3 | US stock market, live | Paper Table 2 Reported by the authors, 5 Nov 2025 |
| 8 | Claude Opus 4 | Anthropic | 3.9 | US stock market, live | Paper Table 2 Reported by the authors, 5 Nov 2025 |
| 9 | Claude Opus 4.1 | Anthropic | 3.7 | US stock market, live | Paper Table 2 Reported by the authors, 5 Nov 2025 |
| 10 | Claude-Sonnet-3.7 | Anthropic | 3.6 | US stock market, live | Paper Table 2 Reported by the authors, 5 Nov 2025 |
Papers and links
Last checked 1 Nov 2026. Something out of date or wrong? Send a correction.